Jul 24, 2026
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
- Side
- Under
- Average entry
- 51¢
Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.
Flat-stake and risk-normalized results from resolved Polymarket signals. Wins and losses are shown together, with receipts anyone can verify.
Small samples are noisy. Windows with fewer than 30 resolved signals are labeled preliminary. These figures become more meaningful as more markets resolve.
Flat stake: +$100 on every 3+ sharp consensus market at the sharps' average entry price
Win rate is secondary to ROI. A strategy can win often and still lose money when entry prices are expensive.
The headline flat-stake model places exactly +$100 on every resolved consensus market with at least three tracked sharps, using the sharps' stored average entry price.
A flat-stake win earns $100 x ((1 - entry price) / entry price). A loss loses $100. Voids return the stake and are excluded from resolved bets and ROI.
When tracked sharps take opposite sides of the same market, the simulation keeps one side only: the side with more participating sharps; if tied, the side with greater combined stake; if still tied, that market is excluded entirely. A real follower would not bet both sides.
The risk-normalized model answers a different question: stake so each win nets a constant +$100. It does not replace the flat-stake number. Flat stake shows what constant risk does; risk-normalized shows what constant reward targeting does.
ROI equals total net profit or loss divided by total simulated dollars staked. Negative periods are displayed without adjustment.
Before conflict rule (all-time flat): 28-28, -28.5% ROI, -$1,593 on 56 resolved
After conflict rule (all-time flat): 17-25, -44.4% ROI, -$1,865 on 42 resolved
Conflicting markets in current data: 14. Sides dropped: 14. Markets excluded by tie: 0.
Buckets appear only after at least 10 resolved signals. Sport and price-band results use the conflict-resolved 3+ sharp set. The 5+ bucket is a subset of 3+.
Ordered by resolution time. Losses and voids are never moved below wins. This table lists stored receipts before simulation filters so you can audit the raw record.
| Resolved | Market | Side | Entry | Result | Basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 | Under | 51¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Will FK Partizan Beograd win on 2026-07-23? | Yes | 78¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-07-23? | Yes | 63¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Palermo: Dalila Spiteri vs Lucia Bronzetti | Lucia Bronzetti | 88¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | Cleveland Guardians | 66¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Exact Score: AEK Lárnakas 0 - 2 MH Beitar Jerusalem? | No | 96¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) | Atlanta Braves | 53¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) | San Diego Padres | 47¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 | Over | 66¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | Under | 59¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ODI Series Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, Women: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan | Pakistan | 53¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ITF Horb: Margaux Maquet vs Francesca Parcelli | Margaux Maquet | 73¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Set Handicap: Erel (-1.5) vs Palan (+1.5) | Palan | 49¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez | Yannick Hanfmann | 55¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Segovia: Matteo Martineau vs Gonzalo Villanueva | Gonzalo Villanueva | 43¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Segovia: Matteo Martineau vs Gonzalo Villanueva | Matteo Martineau | 55¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Hamarkameratene: FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 2.5 | Under | 30¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) | Cruzeiro EC | 82¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | SC Internacional vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 27¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | SC Internacional vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5 | Under | 90¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) | Dallas Wings | 41¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) | PortlandFire | 49¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5 | Over | 43¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5) | St. Louis City SC | 38¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-22? | No | 43¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5 | Over | 28¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5 | Under | 73¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5 | Over | 31¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Los Angeles FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5 | Under | 63¢ | loss | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5) | Real Salt Lake | 83¢ | win | Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence. | Verify |
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