Performance

Polymarket's sports leaderboard says the tracked cohort has made serious money. That result earns attention, but it does not tell a bettor what happens when every sharp ticket gets copied at the same size.

Polymarket reports the cohort PnL, while our resolved receipts test the equal-size copy.

All time on Polymarket

Cohort for this window: the top 100 sports wallets on Polymarket's all time board. Membership changes by window, so these are not the same 100 names every time.

Data updated 2h ago

Window

Tracked sharps · All Time

+$319,484,029

Combined Polymarket-reported sports PnL across 100 wallets on this window's top-100 board.

Figures are reported by Polymarket for sports markets.

The leaderboard has the names behind the number

The leaderboard owns the wallet-by-wallet ranking, including each sharp's PnL, volume, and return on volume. That board shows who reported the most PnL. This page takes the next step for anyone thinking about following them: what happens when every consensus ticket gets the same stake?

See the wallet-by-wallet ranking before the equal-size finding

All-time price study

Favorites made money. Longshots bled.

Across all 2,361 resolved consensus bets, equal $100 stakes returned -5.7%. Price-aware stakes returned 3.1%, with the same picks and a 60.2% win rate.

The entry price tells you where the edge lived. Bets below 60 cents lost under both models, while bets above 60 cents made money under both. Price-aware sizing improved the total because it risked less on the longshot bands that bled and more on the favorite bands that paid.

We computed these results from our own resolved signal receipts, not from Polymarket leaderboard PnL. The study last rebuilt Sep 7, 2026, 7:30 AM UTC.

The cutoff was 60 cents

Each band shows the same resolved bets under equal stakes and price-aware stakes. Every loss stays visible.

Under 30c

Equal $100

-58.2%

Price-aware

-50.3%

169 betsLost in both models

30 to 60c

Equal $100

-10.3%

Price-aware

-8.9%

1,017 betsLost in both models

60 to 85c

Equal $100

6.2%

Price-aware

7.2%

845 betsProfitable in both models

85c and above

Equal $100

4.8%

Price-aware

4.0%

330 betsProfitable in both models

Current confirmed edge

These wallets clear the conservative bar today

Each wallet's adjusted raw risk ROI interval stays above zero after a Bonferroni correction across all 21 eligible wallets. The test rejects more lucky noise than a standard interval, and membership can change as results arrive.

Computed Sep 7, 2026

1winstreak1

+4.4%n=1,991

Adjusted raw risk ROI: +1.97% to +7.13%

This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -1.8% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.

curie

+4.1%n=1,086

Adjusted raw risk ROI: +2.77% to +5.53%

This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned +0.1% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.

HomeRunHazard

+3.7%n=6,118

Adjusted raw risk ROI: +1.82% to +5.68%

This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -2.1% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

+3.2%n=1,746

Adjusted raw risk ROI: +1.22% to +5.23%

This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -7.7% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.

ferrariChampions2026

+2.1%n=7,801

Adjusted raw risk ROI: +0.48% to +3.66%

This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -6.9% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.

RN1

+1.8%n=11,974

Adjusted raw risk ROI: +1.11% to +2.50%

This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -4.3% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.

swisstony

+0.2%n=9,696

Adjusted raw risk ROI: +0.04% to +0.37%

This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -4.3% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.

Short windows show the trend, not the verdict

The all-time result above carries the largest sample. The 30-day and 7-day windows add context, and each card shows its bet count.

Last 30 days

-$4,295

-3.0% flat-stake ROI

Equal size on every ticket · avg entry 61c

Record: 890-519
Win rate: 63.2%
Resolved: 1,409
Voids excluded: 1

Risk-normalized (win $100)

+$31,500 · 6.4% ROI

Last 7 days

-$3,150

-9.8% flat-stake ROI

Equal size on every ticket · avg entry 61c

Record: 195-127
Win rate: 60.6%
Resolved: 322
Voids excluded: 0

Risk-normalized (win $100)

+$5,626 · 5.4% ROI

Windows with fewer than 30 resolved signals are labeled preliminary. Win rate is secondary to ROI when entry prices are expensive.

How the study is built

The flat-stake model places exactly $100 on every resolved consensus market with at least three tracked sharps, using the sharps' stored average entry price.

A flat-stake win earns $100 x ((1 - entry price) / entry price). A loss loses $100. Voids return the stake and are excluded from resolved bets and ROI.

When tracked sharps take opposite sides of the same market, the simulation keeps one side only: the side with more participating sharps; if tied, the side with greater combined stake; if still tied, that market is excluded entirely.

The risk-normalized model stakes so each win nets a constant $100. It does not replace the flat-stake number.

Before conflict rule (all-time flat): 1709-1375, -12.2% ROI, -$37,753 on 3,084 resolved

After conflict rule (all-time flat): 1421-940, -5.7% ROI, -$13,464 on 2,361 resolved

Sport and consensus breakdown

Buckets appear only after at least 10 resolved signals in that slice.

By sport

NBA

88 resolved · avg 62c

-13.0%

ROI

49-3955.7% win rate-$1,148

NFL

33 resolved · avg 61c

-11.0%

ROI

19-1457.6% win rate-$364

MLB

599 resolved · avg 57c

-4.6%

ROI

334-26555.8% win rate-$2,761

Soccer

246 resolved · avg 58c

-7.8%

ROI

136-11055.3% win rate-$1,926

Tennis

1,283 resolved · avg 63c

-4.8%

ROI

820-46363.9% win rate-$6,135

UFC

12 resolved · avg 53c

-33.2%

ROI

5-741.7% win rate-$399

Other

100 resolved · avg 59c

-7.3%

ROI

58-4258.0% win rate-$732

By consensus size

2 sharps

5,363 resolved · avg 58c

-7.1%

ROI

3031-233256.5% win rate-$38,151

3+ sharps

2,361 resolved · avg 61c

-5.7%

ROI

1421-94060.2% win rate-$13,464

5+ sharps

370 resolved · avg 60c

-5.3%

ROI

222-14860.0% win rate-$1,959

Recent auditable receipts

Ordered by resolution time. Losses and voids stay in place. This table lists stored receipts before simulation filters so you can audit the raw record.

Resolved	Market	Side	Entry	Result	Basis	Source
Sep 7, 2026	M25 Sapporo: Kaede Katayama vs Kentaro Otsuka	Kentaro Otsuka	68¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	W50 Guiyang: Sijia Wei vs Eri Shimizu	Eri Shimizu	18¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	W50 Guiyang: Sijia Wei vs Eri Shimizu	Sijia Wei	88¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Phan Thiet 3: Aditya Balsekar vs Hunter Heck	Aditya Balsekar	95¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Phan Thiet 3: Aditya Balsekar vs Hunter Heck	Hunter Heck	75¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	M15 Nonthaburi: Ko Suzuki vs Chikaya Sato	Ko Suzuki	40¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Phan Thiet 3: Martin Borisiouk vs Ethan Cook	Ethan Cook	7¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Phan Thiet 3: Martin Borisiouk vs Ethan Cook	Martin Borisiouk	92¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	M15 Bali: Kai-i Wang vs Thomas Patton	Kai-i Wang	79¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Phan Thiet 3: Benjamin O'Connell vs Taisei Ichikawa	Taisei Ichikawa	74¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	W50 Guiyang: Miho Kuramochi vs Kristiana Sidorova	Kristiana Sidorova	43¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	W50 Guiyang: Miho Kuramochi vs Kristiana Sidorova	Miho Kuramochi	84¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Tulln: Deigo Dedura-Palomero vs Timo Rosenkranz Koenig	Deigo Dedura-Palomero	96¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	67¢	win	This market covered regulation time plus stoppage time only.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Exact Score: CA Nacional Potosí 3 - 3 Club Blooming?	No	99¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	M15 Nonthaburi: Teerapat Khantiweerawat vs ori Hillel	ori Hillel	7¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	M15 Nonthaburi: Teerapat Khantiweerawat vs ori Hillel	Teerapat Khantiweerawat	54¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	W50 Guiyang: Kayo Nishimura vs Hikaru Sato	Hikaru Sato	72¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	W50 Guiyang: Kayo Nishimura vs Hikaru Sato	Kayo Nishimura	62¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	M25 Sapporo: Yua Taka vs Kazushi Idogaki	Kazushi Idogaki	51¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	M25 Sapporo: Yua Taka vs Kazushi Idogaki	Yua Taka	37¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey: Team to Advance	CF Monterrey	42¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-09-06?	No	84¢	win	This market covered regulation time plus stoppage time only.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw?	No	76¢	win	This market covered regulation time plus stoppage time only.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-09-06?	No	57¢	loss	This market covered regulation time plus stoppage time only.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	66¢	win	This market covered regulation time plus stoppage time only.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 3.5	Under	74¢	win	This market covered regulation time plus stoppage time only.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Phan Thiet 3: Timofei Derepasko vs Taiyo Yamanaka	Taiyo Yamanaka	44¢	loss	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Phan Thiet 3: Timofei Derepasko vs Taiyo Yamanaka	Timofei Derepasko	54¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify
Sep 7, 2026	Exact Score: FBC Melgar 2 - 2 AD Tarma?	No	99¢	win	Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.	Verify

Sep 7, 2026

M25 Sapporo: Kaede Katayama vs Kentaro Otsuka

loss

Side: Kentaro Otsuka
Average entry: 68¢

Resolved from final Gamma outcome evidence.

The leaderboard has the names behind the number

The cutoff was 60 cents

These wallets clear the conservative bar today

Short windows show the trend, not the verdict

How the study is built

Sport and consensus breakdown

By sport

By consensus size

Recent auditable receipts

M25 Sapporo: Kaede Katayama vs Kentaro Otsuka

W50 Guiyang: Sijia Wei vs Eri Shimizu

W50 Guiyang: Sijia Wei vs Eri Shimizu

Phan Thiet 3: Aditya Balsekar vs Hunter Heck

Phan Thiet 3: Aditya Balsekar vs Hunter Heck

M15 Nonthaburi: Ko Suzuki vs Chikaya Sato

Phan Thiet 3: Martin Borisiouk vs Ethan Cook

Phan Thiet 3: Martin Borisiouk vs Ethan Cook

M15 Bali: Kai-i Wang vs Thomas Patton

Phan Thiet 3: Benjamin O'Connell vs Taisei Ichikawa

W50 Guiyang: Miho Kuramochi vs Kristiana Sidorova

W50 Guiyang: Miho Kuramochi vs Kristiana Sidorova

Tulln: Deigo Dedura-Palomero vs Timo Rosenkranz Koenig

Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-09-06?

Exact Score: CA Nacional Potosí 3 - 3 Club Blooming?

M15 Nonthaburi: Teerapat Khantiweerawat vs ori Hillel

M15 Nonthaburi: Teerapat Khantiweerawat vs ori Hillel

W50 Guiyang: Kayo Nishimura vs Hikaru Sato

W50 Guiyang: Kayo Nishimura vs Hikaru Sato

M25 Sapporo: Yua Taka vs Kazushi Idogaki

M25 Sapporo: Yua Taka vs Kazushi Idogaki

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey: Team to Advance

Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-09-06?

Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw?

Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-09-06?

Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-09-06?

Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 3.5

Phan Thiet 3: Timofei Derepasko vs Taiyo Yamanaka

Phan Thiet 3: Timofei Derepasko vs Taiyo Yamanaka

Exact Score: FBC Melgar 2 - 2 AD Tarma?

New receipts land every morning.