Entry price bands
n=1200Under 30c12% of tickets · 4% of stake
30 to 50c40% of tickets · 19% of stake
50 to 70c33% of tickets · 34% of stake
70c and above16% of tickets · 43% of stake
#54
HomeRunHazard
Reported Polymarket sports figures from the ALL board.
0x5268...135d
Sports PNL
$2.1M
Sports volume
$418.9M
Markets traded
42,006
Biggest single win
$517.4k
Edge Rating
+2.6%
n=9,937
Edge Rating scores a wallet after entry price, using the same price-sized stake as the performance study. A positive score is not a bet to place.
This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -2.8% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.
Edge Rating was computed on Oct 12, 2026.
Behavioral profile
How this wallet enters
The math consolidates fills into 1200 tickets. The source covers Oct 11, 2026 to Oct 12, 2026.
Cache age: 14 hours
Truncated at 5,000 fills
Sport mix
n=1199Tennis494 tickets · 33% of stake
NFL344 tickets · 50% of stake
NBA239 tickets · 6% of stake
MLB81 tickets · 9% of stake
NHL41 tickets · 2% of stake
1199 classified and 1 left as Other.
Favorite versus underdog
n=120049% favored contracts
The split uses entry price. Contracts at 50 cents or higher count as favored outcomes.
Ticket sizing
n=1200Median ticket
$124
25th to 75th
$13 to $795
Sized up
41%
90th percentile
$3.7k
Weekly realized PNL
Polymarket closed positions inside the scheduled 90-day profile window. The chart shows 50 positions and never fills missing weeks with zero.
Coverage: Oct 12, 2026 through Oct 12, 2026 · Truncated at the 50-position API limit
Recent fills
These are the latest ten Polymarket fills, not ten distinct tickets.
| Market | Outcome | Side | Fill notional | Price | Filled at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedder vs. Curmi: Match O/U 22.5 | Over | BUY | $1 | 51¢ | Oct 12, 11:26 AM UTC |
| Maia: Duje Ajdukovic vs Andrej Martin | Duje Ajdukovic | BUY | $62 | 85¢ | Oct 12, 11:26 AM UTC |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz | Carlos Alcaraz | BUY | $6 | 66¢ | Oct 12, 11:26 AM UTC |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp | Botic van de Zandschulp | BUY | $12 | 23¢ | Oct 12, 11:26 AM UTC |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz | Carlos Alcaraz | BUY | $241 | 66¢ | Oct 12, 11:26 AM UTC |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz | Carlos Alcaraz | BUY | $5 | 66¢ | Oct 12, 11:26 AM UTC |
| Vedder vs. Curmi: Match O/U 22.5 | Over | BUY | $2 | 46¢ | Oct 12, 11:25 AM UTC |
| Olbia: Mathys Erhard vs Leo Raquillet | Mathys Erhard | BUY | $133 | 92¢ | Oct 12, 11:25 AM UTC |
| Olbia: Mathys Erhard vs Leo Raquillet | Mathys Erhard | BUY | $167 | 91¢ | Oct 12, 11:25 AM UTC |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz | Zizou Bergs | BUY | $2 | 36¢ | Oct 12, 11:24 AM UTC |
Expected value
EV stays hidden until this wallet has at least 100 attributed, resolved receipts. This deploy does not substitute a 50 percent win rate.
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