Entry price bands
n=1279Under 30c15% of tickets · 5% of stake
30 to 50c32% of tickets · 23% of stake
50 to 70c34% of tickets · 40% of stake
70c and above19% of tickets · 32% of stake
#44
CandleHammerDrums
Reported Polymarket sports figures from the ALL board.
0x7c1e...bab3
Sports PNL
$2.3M
Sports volume
$41.7M
Markets traded
3,240
Biggest single win
$371.4k
Edge Rating
Edge Rating is not published
n=8
Edge Rating rewards edge after entry price. Equal-stake copying lost money, so size the risk to the price.
This rating accounts for entry price. Equal $100 stakes returned -25.9% ROI in this wallet's resolved sample.
Edge Rating needs at least 30 valid resolved results. This wallet has n=8.
Edge Rating was computed on Aug 28, 2026.
Behavioral profile
How this wallet enters
The math consolidates fills into 1279 tickets. The source covers Aug 25, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026.
Cache age: 3 hours
Truncated at 5,000 fills
Sport mix
n=1279Crypto1279 tickets · 100% of stake
1279 classified and 0 left as Other.
Favorite versus underdog
n=127952% favored contracts
The split uses entry price. Contracts at 50 cents or higher count as favored outcomes.
Ticket sizing
n=1279Median ticket
$10
25th to 75th
$5 to $20
Sized up
24%
90th percentile
$35
Weekly realized PNL
Polymarket closed positions inside the scheduled 90-day profile window. The chart shows 50 positions and never fills missing weeks with zero.
Coverage: Aug 28, 2026 through Aug 28, 2026 · Truncated at the 50-position API limit
Recent fills
These are the latest ten Polymarket fills, not ten distinct tickets.
| Market | Outcome | Side | Fill notional | Price | Filled at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Up | BUY | $2 | 44¢ | Aug 28, 1:30 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Down | BUY | $2 | 47¢ | Aug 28, 1:30 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | Down | BUY | $3 | 61¢ | Aug 28, 1:30 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | BUY | $1 | 16¢ | Aug 28, 1:28 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Up | BUY | $1 | 28¢ | Aug 28, 1:28 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Down | BUY | $2 | 38¢ | Aug 28, 1:26 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Down | BUY | $1 | 30¢ | Aug 28, 1:25 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Down | BUY | $2 | 37¢ | Aug 28, 1:25 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Down | BUY | $2 | 45¢ | Aug 28, 1:25 PM UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET | Up | BUY | $1 | 23¢ | Aug 28, 1:21 PM UTC |
Expected value
EV stays hidden until this wallet has at least 100 attributed, resolved receipts. This deploy does not substitute a 50 percent win rate.
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