Every probability has a cost
A position at 60 cents implies roughly a 60% chance and pays one dollar if it wins. You are laying 60 to win 40. The steeper the price, the more often that side has to cash.
The same math travels to any book. American odds and prediction-market prices are two scoreboards for cost and implied probability.
One record, two staking rules
We run settled consensus bets with a flat $100 stake and again with a stake sized so every win earns $100. Both versions use the same traders, games, picks, entry prices, and outcomes.
- Flat staking answers what happened if every opinion received equal dollars.
- Price-sized staking shows how the cost of favorites and longshots changes capital at risk.
- Neither model reproduces the amount an individual sharp wagered.
History is a reference, not a promise
Price-band results describe what happened in this sample. They can mark a playable range, but they cannot pick the next winner. Sample size, missing older fills, and moving markets still matter.