Raw profit is not enough
A fat bankroll or one monster longshot can make any account look sharp. Edge Rating grades the return against the risk and the number of settled bets behind it.
Small samples get less credit
A short heater gets pulled toward the field until more results come in. The formal method is empirical-Bayes shrinkage. The point is simple: 30-for-40 should not outrank years of steady work without more proof.
Confirmed edge is the harder test
Testing many wallets guarantees that a few will look exceptional by chance. Confirmed edge raises the standard to account for every trader tested. Very few wallets clear it.
- Positive Edge Rating means the record looks promising after adjustment.
- Confirmed edge means luck is a weak explanation after correcting for many tests.
- Neither score predicts the next bet.